I have been in two minds about how to interpret the military takeover of power in Thailand.

First of all, I find it peculiar that the replacement of a democratic government with a military junta can receive such “positive” press and almost universal acceptance.

This is not like Burma where determined democrats will make a principled stand against military dictatorships. Nor is it like Eastern Europe or Russia where people will meet the tanks in the street and put flowers in the army’s gunbarrels to persuade them to refrain from using force and supporting the coup.

In a negative interpretation you could say that this reflects the huge gap between rich and poor in Thailand. The rich middle classes of Bangkok hated Thaksin with a vengeance and found it frustrating that they could not remove him with democratic means. If the military decides to act against him and replace his kind a democracy with something that is more to their liking then that is apparently enough to strip away any kind of principled stance in favour of democracy. Mr Thaksins supporters seem to limit themselves to his rich plutocratic family network and the poor people of the North. These poor people are really disenfranchised and any notion that they would stand up for the guy they chose in an armed uprising is so illusory that no journalist or analyst even discussed that idea. Anyone who have read the works of Pira Sudham will understand how ingrained deference and powerlessness is to the poor people of Isarn.
So in a negative interpretation the coup just underlines that Thailand is just a country still in the hands of a wealthy few and any idea that real democracy exists is totally flawed.

In a more positive light, you can read the king’s intervention in this as a positive thing. Everyone who is in the know understands that Thaksin was corrupt. Furthermore, he was trying to secure his hold on power by placing his family members in high-ranking military positions. In many ways Thaksin could resemble an early Ferdinand Marcos. At first he too was democratically elected and introduced a few populist reforms to help the poor. But over time he proved to be a kleptocrat emptying the states finances and a nepotist putting his own family in places of power. If Thaksin had not had the king and military to deal with he might have developed into a new Marcos who could only have been overthrown in a people’s revolution. It took a long time for this people’s revolution to happen in the Philippines and when it did Mr Marcos had already milked the country dry.
The fact that Thailand has a benevolent king who could see the political deadlock that Thaksin had caused and acted on the intelligent opposition of Bangkok’s enlightened middle class in supporting the coup could therefore be seen as a special blessing for Thai society. Not many developing countries still have such a degree of continuity and respect for the head of state as in Thailand. Other countries have had to endure various dictators who called themselves presidents – but Thailand always has its king. The prime minister may change but the king ensures stability and deters unrest. Unlike other poor and fractured countries Thailand still has this symbol of unity and authority that can ensure stable government and a cohesive social order.

As my wife and I have a vested interest in the future prospects of Thailand I tend to prefer my latter interpretation of events.

Has anyone else tried to understand and come to terms with what has happened?

Despite having a parliament and elected politicians, real power in Thailand has always resided with the military. They allowed the democratic process as long as everything went they way they liked.

This coup was not just to get rid of Taksin, if it were then the military would arrange for elections to take place as soon as possible. Instead, they say that elections will be held sometime next year, after they have rewritten the constitution to ensure that future civil governments are more to their liking.

quote:

In a more positive light, you can read the king’s intervention in this as a positive thing.

As far as I'm aware, the King has not actually made any public statements on this. The junta say he is supporting them, but they have not yet allowed him to speak publicly. One has to wonder why.

At the moment, the Thai people have accepted this with their usual stoicism. My fear is what will happen if the junta do not fulfil their promise to restore democracy.

quote:

Originally posted by Noi & Nick:
At the moment, the Thai people have accepted this with their usual stoicism.

This is a funny word to use: "stoicism". Do not get me wrong I do not think it is misplaced. I admire Thai people for the way they deal with such events in their lives.
More critical observers, however, might use other words such as "submissiveness".

quote:

Originally posted by Noi & Nick:
As far as I'm aware, the King has not actually made any public statements on this. The junta say he is supporting them, but they have not yet allowed him to speak publicly. One has to wonder why.

If the King associates himself with the coup in a too public manner his credibility may suffer (mostly in terms of an international audience I guess)

The junta have publicly stated that they have His Majesty's support. This surely would have the same 'credibility' issues as a public statement by the King himself?

I fear that the King's silence may have more sinister implications.

quote:

Originally posted by Noi & Nick:
The junta have publicly stated that they have His Majesty's support. This surely would have the same 'credibility' issues as a public statement by the King himself?

In terms of removing any uncertainty or speculation about the coup's success/finality such a statement by the junta was probably necessary. Otherwise, the Thai economy might have suffered and Thailand may still feature in Western media speculating whether the UN or Western governments would support Thaksin's return to power or propose some sort of compromise.
With the King's acceptance/acquiescense most governments seem to regard the shift in management as a fait accompli.

If the King made a public speech urging people to support the new regime he might be regarded as a willing tool of the junta or even as an instigator of the coup.

By staying silent he is neither appearing to be led by the junta or having too much involvement in the current planning himself. By giving his consent but staying distant he can still claim to be an impartial and benevolent head of state intent on ensuring Thailand's peace and social cohesion.

Yes, Henson, I can fully understand why the junta want the world and especially the Thai people to believe that they have the King's support. A public statement from him expressing that support would have shown this irrefutably.

So, I wonder why this statement has not been forthcoming, and can only come up with very unpalatable reasons.

I sincerely hope my fears are groundless.

Sorry, I have added a few thoughts to my previous post.

I just think there might be very rational reasons for the King both to support the coup but also to stay silent

I hope your thoughts on the King's silence are right, and my fears are groundless.

The King's silence IS his approval.

quote:

Originally posted by Keith&Mol:
The King's silence IS his approval.

In law we often refer to this as 'tacit acceptance'.

These two articles are interesting:-

Thai king an ally of coup?

The Quiet Coup

From the second

quote:

Bangkok-based intellectuals were quick to denounce Thaksin as a corrupt despot who had hijacked national politics for personal gain. They cast Thai Rak Thai as a dangerous threat to social order. Yet the fact remains: the government was toppled by tanks because in all likelihood it could not be ousted at the ballot box. "If elections were held tomorrow and supervised by the United Nations, Thaksin would win," says political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of International Studies at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. "And that's a problem for Thailand."

Maybe this explains the King's silence. He is known to have disapproved of Taksin, especially his economic policies, yet he is also a democrat. So, perhaps he approves of Taksin's removal, but not the way it was done?

Unfortunately the King is old and frail, with no natural sucessor in terms of popularity or leadership qualities. I feel very uneasy about them setting a date for elections more than 12 months from now when anyone committed to democracy would be aiming for 3 months at most. I suspect this will drag on until the King dies or passes from the public eye. Where this will leave Thailand is anyones guess.

BigRed

quote:

Originally posted by Keith&Mol:
The King's silence IS his approval.

Maybe the King is being prevented from making a public appearance and statement.

From Newsweek, the Quiet Coup (link in Nick's previous post)

quote:

In recent days, Thaksin's critics have begun to cast his ambitions to create export-driven industries in the countryside as a threat to traditional Thai society. Thaksin's moves "challenged the king and [Thailand's] established order," says Thitinan. "We're not being true to ourselves if we see it any other way."

I found this very interesting and wished that the article would go into further detail. What exactly is meant when it says that by creating export-driven industries in places like Isarn Thailand's social oorder will be threatened??
Is this not very odious?? So Thailand's social order can only survive if isarn remains pre-industrial and bases itself on its poor farming economy?? If Isarn develops economically then the consequence will be that the ready supply of labour for Bangkok and its prosperous and enterprising middle classes will erode. If Isarn people actually see a way to a better life by staying in Isarn then the whole of Thai society is threatened? Surely this shows how the ruling elite are intent on maintaing Thailand's very hierarchical structure. It just again underlines that the anger expressed in Pira Sudham's books about the oppression of the North-East by the Thainese and Bangkok elites are more relevant than ever.
Not pleasant reading and makes me wonder why so many of this site's members vehemently think Thaksin's removal is such a good thing??? He may have been corrupt, selfish and powerhungry, but it does seem like he was trying to overturn some parts of Thailand's very fixed hierarchical structure.

quote:

Maybe the King is being prevented from making a public appearance and statement.

Firstly I doubt that very much. Secondly, if the King was being detained word would get out some how.

The King’s silence is seen by some as tacit approval of the coup. I believe the King did not approve of the coup. However, there is not much he can do about it. He is unlikely to voice his opposition to it because that would inevitably lead to pointless violence and loss of life on the streets of Bangkok.

I would see his silence as resignation to the act rather than approval. I expect that he will just wait and see the outcome as everyone else will.

quote:

Maybe the King is being prevented from making a public appearance and statement.

General Prem who used to be Prime Minister is still involved in politics. he is well respected in thailand and is an advisor to the king.

leading up to the coup his name was mentioned a lot in The Nation newsapaper. In my opninion he must have have been involved in this latest coup. if Gerneral Prem is involved then it stands to reason that the King would have know about it all along.

This is my uneducated opinion, which i will be honest and say comes mostly from reading The Nation and from this book Democracy, Shaken and Stirred
which i would recommend to everyone. it makes good basic background reading into the current situation and lays the foundation for furthur reading.

As we know that the coflict between Taksin and Sonthi who lost his media business last year and against him throughout year by oppsition support. Its really pity that we have opposition governmoent who boycotted last April'election and biased media published the wrong information to the publict as banned it by silent power of Thai early of September-support Sonthi and try offering new prime minister by King's endorsement. Is this the way of democracy? Finally, good news for Thai is new general election in forthcoming conceded by rayal decree dated 24 Aug 2006 to reslove a mess.

For 9 years, the best 1997 constitution that we ever have and bring our country by Taksin's contribution who was selected 3 times democractically from the public-aprox.16 million votes for Thai Rak Thai with attractive policy. In fact, we never thave any party which come up with policy for the election so this is first time hearing of many Thais. The question is there if Taksin try to win the vote form glass roots, but he won it. Who get this benefit? I would say this is fisrt time, glass roots got most benefit than middle class or high class that they ever have.

-30 baht project which effect to doctors who lost the big bugget in each year and work harder as we have seen thier pretest recently.
-One Tambol One product in which the government distributed load of jobs to the villages as income of the country.
-One Aumphure one shcolarship for local university and aboard as the unclean money from illegal Lottery was taken by goverment-supported poor students.
-Provided gas tank reducing cost instead using gasoline for Taxi driver while rising oil price continuously
-Destruction of druggy gangster who was backing by rich peoples and local politicain.

etc.

Who lost the benefit being led by Taksin's government?
-Doctors,
-Druggy Gangster and investor.
-Opposition government who try to discredit and rumore spread.
-The medias who support the pposition as investment particular Nation Group who got most benefit from Demorcrat Party's goverment
-Some of Military, backing by ex-prime minister P. lost power, could not adapt the new rules if the change in every year proved by the PM. As we know, ex-prime minister was not voted by the public as same as Taksin, but he was supported by Military.
-In fact, Taksin will win the vote in any election so the assassination was the last answer to stop his popularity and Thai Rak Thai. As the car bomp incident was connected with many powerful peoples while police took it deeply after 4 military officers revealed and the biased media has published as faked bomp. Apparently, all of them will be in big trouble as many cases being in the process.
-Some of well known Scholars who support the Demorcrat party provoked the public and influence students, uttery shame if Taksin is still lead the country.
-The elite, who are losing power, dignity-could not accpet the equality in the society if Taksin win the vote.

etc.

Finally: 19/9/2006 was recorded again for dead of democracy in Thailand

The rumore has leaked 2-3 days spreaded in many webistes as thier plan for 6-7 months. What a pathatic! We have no freedom to view any opinion, update the circumstance on TV which controled by the janta. All communications are blocked via website, local radio even though international channels. What can we do?

Another interesting article, this one from The Sunday Times.

Thai coup sparked by failed war on Islamists

As far as I am concerned Thaskin did a lot of good but my wife told me that people in her village had recieved a "one off payment " of between 7 and 10,000 baht from Thaskin when he came to power.All my inlaws think he is the best thing since som tam because of this and therefore always vote for him. Can you imagine the uproar if Blair gave all the poorest households £100 or so ,he would probebly get locked up.
I have tried to explain top my wife that Thaskin had bought the votes of the people in Isan .
This may not be strictley true though as my wife my be beautifull ,funny and very caring but her understanding of politics and the general ways of the world is innocent to say the least.
Its a bit odd dont you think that this coup has happened while LOS celabrates 60 years of the kings reign.
.....Mick.......

quote:

Originally posted by A&A:

quote:

Maybe the King is being prevented from making a public appearance and statement.

General Prem who used to be Prime Minister is still involved in politics. he is well respected in thailand and is an advisor to the king.

leading up to the coup his name was mentioned a lot in The Nation newsapaper. In my opninion he must have have been involved in this latest coup. if Gerneral Prem is involved then it stands to reason that the King would have know about it all along.

This is my uneducated opinion, which i will be honest and say comes mostly from reading The Nation and from this book Democracy, Shaken and Stirred
which i would recommend to everyone. it makes good basic background reading into the current situation and lays the foundation for furthur reading.

Excatly, Prem who was ex-PM from military support is one of jig-saw that peoples are waiting to compete the picture. they are aware of silent power and try to block website based in Thailand sharing and view politics. He went to meet the King befoer took palce,but our King was not agree that time.

As my observe, the coup arranged the tanks at Prem's area on 19thSep. They have to do before Takins fly back to Bangkok as Prem know very well that most of people support him.

I don't think we can truly have a black and white picutre. But I have to admit I am not very keen on Taksin. Calling april election in a snap that the opoosition had to boycott!
April election was eventually declared void by the constituitonal court.

The 30 baht medical system. I still cannot figure out how you run a very cheap health service for everybody without a good tax system in place...Is there enough funding in a long term for hospitals?

Sending upcountry under priviledged students to study abroad? I never understand obsession with studying abroad? Students will have to have enough language ability, adjustment to new enviornments and stuff .. tough on them - looks good for their family but does this worth it - Chula, thammasart, mahidol are already good universities in thailand.. One of the students in the programme in Germany commited suicide.

but I really like the One Tambol One programme and getting rid of the gangsters..

For the reasons why this coup happened, it is probably more complex than we are told from the newspapers.

quote:

Originally posted by Mol:
I don't think we can truly have a black and white picutre. But I have to admit I am not very keen on Taksin. Calling april election in a snap that the opoosition had to boycott!
April election was eventually declared void by the constituitonal court.

The 30 baht medical system. I still cannot figure out how you run a very cheap health service for everybody without a good tax system in place...Is there enough funding in a long term for hospitals?

Sending upcountry under priviledged students to study abroad? I never understand obsession with studying abroad? Students will have to have enough language ability, adjustment to new enviornments and stuff .. tough on them - looks good for their family but does this worth it - Chula, thammasart, mahidol are already good universities in thailand.. One of the students in the programme in Germany commited suicide.

but I really like the One Tambol One programme and getting rid of the gangsters..

For the reasons why this coup happened, it is probably more complex than we are told from the newspapers.

More infor.

สรุปงบประมาณ 30 บาท ปี2548
การจัดสรรงบบริการทางการแพทย์ ปีงบประมาณ 2548 (1ต.ค. 47 - 30 ก.ย. 48 ) ล้านบาท

1.ค่าเหมาจ่ายบริการผู้ป่วยนอก ผู้ป่วยในและส่งเสริมป้องกัน 30,530.79 ใช้ไป 29,048.34=95.14%

2.บริการอุบัติเหตุ และเจ็บป่วยฉุกเฉิน 1,162.31 ใช้ไป 807.66=69.49%

3.บริการที่มีค่าใช้จ่ายสูง 4,675.56 ใช้ไป 3,361.13=71.89%

4.บริการการแพทย์ฉุกเฉิน
บริการทางการแพทย์ฉุกเฉิน 282.00 ไม่ได้ใช้
งบผู้พิการ 188.00 ใช้ไป 19.10=10.16%

5.งบลงทุนเพื่อการทดแทน 3,609.60 ใช้ไป 3,528.22=97.75%

6.งบจัดสรรให้พื้นที่ทุรกันดาร 332.29 ใช้ไป 332.29=100%

7.เงินช่วยเหลือเบื้องต้นฯตามมาตรา 41 9.40 ใช้ไป 11.49=122.18%

8.Tsunami