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  1. #41
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    14000 is not a high number of tests
    If the tests are accurate and reliable and targeted then it a decent number in the circumstances but obviously more would be better.
    Human beings are seventy percent water, and with some the rest is collagen

  2. #42
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    Today's figures appear below.

    21/04/20 Confirmed Cases Total Deaths In Hospital Total Tests 'PUI' Under Investigation
    Thailand
    Change
    2,811
    +19
    48
    +1
    655
    -91
    142,589
    +0
    42,302
    +1,355


    21/04/20 Confirmed Cases Critical Cases Total Deaths People Tested Total Tests
    UK
    Change
    129,044
    +4,301
    1,559
    +0
    17,337
    +823
    397,670
    +11,626
    535,342
    +18,206


    Green = improving figure
    Red = worsening figure
    Amber = no material change to trend (<2%)
    Purple = data not updated by reporting authority

    An explanation of the data can be found at the bottom of this post.
    Tobias - โทเบียส
    It’s better to be 6 feet apart than to be 6 feet under.

  3. #43
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    Hi Tobias - thanks for posting these stats. It's the only place I seek out such data now.

    But can I ask where you source the PUI data? As far as I can see, this information isn't issued in the daily releases for Thai National or regional stats. Every day I am able to see the local data for Hua Hin via the local forum, but it doesn't include the PUI stats.

    It was noticeable from a very early stage that Thailand had 1000's under investigation, but this data somehow then seems to get filtered out.

    Thanks
    'Tis me

  4. #44
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    Caller, the data I am posting is collected from a number of official sources, specifically from Public Health England, the Department of Health and Social Care (UK), the Department of Disease Control and its Emergency Operations Center (Thailand), and/or the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine Research Center (USA).
    Tobias - โทเบียส
    It’s better to be 6 feet apart than to be 6 feet under.

  5. #45
    Premium Member caller's Avatar
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    Thanks Tobias, the PUI's bother me a little. Over 44,000 suspected cases to warrant testing (I believe) and either enforced quarantine, self quarantine, hospital admission for further tests or straight to ICU, but then only 2800 confirmed cases. They are either doing something very right or something very wrong.
    'Tis me

  6. #46
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    Today's figures appear below. The number of hospital patients being treated for COVID-19 in Thailand has reduced yet again and by significant number. There are very positive signs coming from Thailand, if the information being provided by the Government is accurate.


    22/04/20 Confirmed Cases In Hospital Critical Cases Total Deaths Total Tests 'PUI' Under Investigation
    Thailand
    Change
    2,826
    +15
    425
    -230
    61
    +0
    49
    +1
    142,589
    +0
    44,176
    +1,874


    22/04/20 Confirmed Cases Critical Cases Total Deaths People Tested Total Tests
    UK
    Change
    133,495
    +4,451
    1,559
    +0
    18,100
    +759
    411,192
    +13,522
    559,935
    +22,814


    Green = improving figure
    Red = worsening figure
    Amber = no material change to trend (<2%)
    Purple = data not updated by reporting authority

    An explanation of the data can be found at the bottom of this post.
    Tobias - โทเบียส
    It’s better to be 6 feet apart than to be 6 feet under.

  7. #47
    Moderator Tobias's Avatar
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    Today's figures appear below.


    23/04/20 Confirmed Cases In Hospital Critical Cases Total Deaths Total Tests 'PUI' Under Investigation
    Thailand
    Change
    2,839
    +13
    359
    -66
    61
    +0
    50
    +1
    142,589
    +0
    46,034
    +1,858


    23/04/20 Confirmed Cases Critical Cases Total Deaths People Tested Total Tests
    UK
    Change
    138,078
    +4,583
    1,559
    +0
    18,738
    +616
    425,821
    +14,629
    583,496
    +23,560


    Green = improving figure
    Red = worsening figure
    Amber = no material change to trend (<2%)
    Violet = data not updated by reporting authority

    An explanation of the data can be found at the bottom of this post.
    Tobias - โทเบียส
    It’s better to be 6 feet apart than to be 6 feet under.

  8. #48
    Moderator Tobias's Avatar
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    Today's figures appear below. With the USA passing a bleak milestone of over 50,000 COVID-19 related deaths, Thailand says its death toll from the disease remains at just 50 whilst the UK is heading steadily toward a sobering 20,000.


    24/04/20 Confirmed Cases In Hospital Critical Cases Total Deaths Total Tests 'PUI' Under Investigation
    Thailand
    Change
    2,854
    +15
    314
    -45
    61
    +0
    50
    +0
    142,589
    +0
    47,961
    +1,927


    24/04/20 Confirmed Cases Critical Cases Total Deaths People Tested Total Tests
    UK
    Change
    143,464
    +5,386
    1,559
    +0
    19,506
    +684
    444,222
    +18,401
    612,031
    +28,532


    Green = improving figure
    Red = worsening figure
    Amber = no material change to trend (<2%)
    Violet = data not updated by reporting authority

    An explanation of the data can be found at the bottom of this post.
    Tobias - โทเบียส
    It’s better to be 6 feet apart than to be 6 feet under.

  9. #49
    Moderator Tobias's Avatar
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    Today's figures appear below. As the number of COVID-19 related deaths worldwide fast approaches 200,000 the UK has reported more than 20,000 deaths.

    25/04/20 Confirmed Cases In Hospital Critical Cases Total Deaths Total Tests 'PUI' Under Investigation
    Thailand
    Change
    2,907
    +53
    309
    -5
    61
    +0
    51
    +1
    142,589
    +0
    50,590
    +2,629


    25/04/20 Confirmed Cases Critical Cases Total Deaths People Tested Total Tests
    UK
    Change
    148,377
    +4,913
    1,559
    +0
    20,319
    +813
    517,836
    +23,115
    640,792
    +28,760


    Green = improving figure
    Red = worsening figure
    Amber = no material change to trend (<2%)
    Violet = data not updated by reporting authority

    An explanation of the data can be found at the bottom of this post.

    The difference between the cumulative numbers from today and yesterday for tests is 1 higher than the daily increase figure. This is due to a revision of historic test data by PHE.

    The difference between the cumulative numbers from today and yesterday for people tested is 50,499 higher than the daily increase figure. Cumulative testing figures include 50,499 retrospective reports of people who tested negative between 31 January and 24 April. These are now available due to a new reporting system that includes more laboratories reporting all test results. The overnight change reported is based on figures using the new system. The reporting system of positive results remains stable and no issues have been identified with this data.
    Tobias - โทเบียส
    It’s better to be 6 feet apart than to be 6 feet under.

  10. #50
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    As the UK approaches 150,000 confirmed cumulative COVID-19 cases, I thought I'd post a couple of graphs to show what affect the UK 'lock-down' is having on the spread of the disease and the number of resulting deaths.

    This first graph shows the number of confirmed UK cases and reveals the rate of infection has levelled out, perhaps even showing a slight decrease in the number of cases.


    The next graph shows the number of UK hospital deaths where the deceased has been confirmed to have COVID-19 at the time of death. The good news that can be seen in this graph is that it indicates a definite downward trend in the number of COVID-19 related deaths.

    Tobias - โทเบียส
    It’s better to be 6 feet apart than to be 6 feet under.

  11. #51
    Moderator Tobias's Avatar
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    As the world is approaching 3 million cases, today the UK passes 150,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases.


    26/04/20 Total Cases In Hospital Total Discharged Total Deaths Total Tests 'PUI' Under Investigation
    Thailand
    Change
    2,922
    +15
    277
    -32
    2,594
    +47
    51
    +0
    142,589
    +0
    51,855
    +1,265


    26/04/20 Total Cases Pillar 2 Cases* Total Deaths People Tested Total Tests
    UK
    Change
    152,840
    +4,463
    18,149
    +1,330
    20,732
    +413
    543,413
    +25,577
    669,850
    +29,058


    Green = improving figure
    Red = worsening figure
    Amber = no material change to trend (<2%)
    Violet = data not updated by reporting authority


    * 'Pillar 2 Cases’ (UK)
    This figure is the cumulative number of Pillar 2 cases that have tested positive for COVID-19. Pillar 2 tests are those swab tests carried out on critical key workers (and members of their households) from the NHS, social care and other key sectors. This data is reported showing the figures for the previous day.

    Total Cases’ (Thailand and UK)
    For clinical purposes some individuals are retested, this figure is the cumulative number for all COVID-19 tests undertaken.
    UK 'Total Cases' figure include people who are considered most critical workers and their families (PIllar 1), it also includes testing for key workers and their households (Pillar 2) as well as serology testing: a national surveillance programme for population blood testing, using a high-accuracy antibody test operated by Public Health England (PHE) to find out what proportion of the population have had the virus (Pillar 4).

    'Under Investigation' or 'PUI' (Thailand)
    Cumulative number of untested individuals who may have been exposed to the Coronavirus through their daily interactions and who present with significant COVID-19 symptoms. More detailed information can be found: 'PUI' - Patients Under Investigation.

    Data and accuracy: Figures accurate at date and time of posting. Data collected from Public Health England, the Thai Department of Disease Control, and/or the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine.

    Recovery figures: are not included because the data is incomplete, inaccurate or not routinely reported.
    Last edited by Tobias; 26th Apr 2020 at 19:54. Reason: To update UK test figures
    Tobias - โทเบียส
    It’s better to be 6 feet apart than to be 6 feet under.

  12. #52
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    This data concerns me greatly ,,no way is someone telling the truth here but then again my wife's sister says all is under control in Bangkok .
    Head scratching here now why are them figures like that ? or maybe its not made its way round yet ?Like japan until a week ago they was OK then it hit them .Which is strange seeing has they live next door to China . Or is it the wearing of mask .or if someone dies in Chang Mai or Chang Rai or koh samet an old person are they going to send off to Bangkok for reports ?
    I have found the answer to my question ie the number of test done in Thailand as off 21/04/2020 was 142,589 and the number tested as of today is 142,589 .

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Samsung View Post
    ... I have found the answer to my question ie the number of test done in Thailand as off 21/04/2020 was 142,589 and the number tested as of today is 142,589 .
    Thailand is only publishing the total number of tests it carries out once a week, it does however publish the number of positive COVID-19 cases, deaths, PUIs and hospital figures each day.
    Tobias - โทเบียส
    It’s better to be 6 feet apart than to be 6 feet under.

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tobias View Post
    Thailand is only publishing the total number of tests it carries out once a week, it does however publish the number of positive test, PUIs, and hospital figures daily.
    thank you for clearing that up Mr t .
    I am still what puzzled by the difference not just Thailand a lot of country's from one to another Italy to Germany to France to Sweden and the UK it is very strange.

  15. #55
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    Today's figures appear below. Thailand has published its latest testing figures indicating it has undertaken a lower number of tests in one week as the UK has carried out in a single day.

    The good news is that despite an increase in the number of tests carried out, the rate of infection is reducing. There has been a further reduction in the number of deaths.


    27/04/20 Total Cases In Hospital Total Discharged Total Deaths Total Tests 'PUI' Under Investigation
    Thailand
    Change
    2,931
    +9
    270
    -7
    2,609
    +15
    52
    +1
    178,083
    +35,494
    53,425
    +1,570


    27/04/20 Total Cases Pillar 2 Cases* Total Deaths People Tested Total Tests
    UK
    Change
    157,149
    +4,310
    19,927
    +1,778
    21,092
    +360
    569,768
    +26,355
    719,910
    +37,024


    Green = improving figure
    Red = worsening figure
    Amber = no material change to trend (<2%)
    Violet = data not updated by reporting authority


    * 'Pillar 2 Cases’ (UK)
    This figure is the cumulative number of Pillar 2 cases that have tested positive for COVID-19. Pillar 2 tests are those tests carried out on critical/key workers (and members of their households) from the NHS, social care and other key sectors. Because this data is only published late in the day, the Pillar 2 figures shown are correct as at 17:00 BST the previous day.


    An explanation of the data can be found at the bottom of this post.
    Last edited by Tobias; 27th Apr 2020 at 19:10. Reason: Updated People Tested data
    Tobias - โทเบียส
    It’s better to be 6 feet apart than to be 6 feet under.

  16. #56
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    The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has published its latest weekly death figures for the week ending 17 April. The ONS statistics indicate the number of deaths where COVID-19 is believed to have been a contributory factor is significantly above the number of deaths the Government is using (and reporting) for measuring the effectiveness of its coronavirus emergency response.

    Both the Thai and UK 'Total Deaths' figures below relate in almost all cases to patients who have died in hospital and who have tested positive for COVID-19. The figures do not include deaths outside hospital, such as those in care homes or in the community.

    I understand that from tomorrow the ONS will publish details of COVID-19 related deaths (in all situations) on a daily basis. Consequently we are likely to see a substantial increase of reported COVID-19 related deaths when the UK data is reconciled and updated.

    Today's figures appear below.


    28/04/20 Total Cases In Hospital Total Discharged Total Deaths Total Tests 'PUI' Under Investigation
    Thailand
    Change
    2,938
    +7
    232
    -38
    2,652
    +43
    54
    +2
    178,083
    +35,494
    53,425
    +2,217


    28/04/20 Total Cases Pillar 2 Cases* Total Deaths People Tested Total Tests
    UK
    Change
    161,145
    +3,996
    21,507
    +1,580
    21,678
    +586
    599,339
    +29,571
    763,387
    +43,563


    Green = improving figure
    Red = worsening figure
    Amber = no material change to trend (<2%)
    Violet = data not updated by reporting authority


    * 'Pillar 2 Cases’ (UK)
    This figure is the cumulative number of Pillar 2 cases that have tested positive for COVID-19. Pillar 2 tests are those tests carried out on critical/key workers (and members of their households) from the NHS, social care and other key sectors. Because this data is only published late in the day, the Pillar 2 figures shown are correct as at 17:00 BST the previous day.


    An explanation of the data can be found at the bottom of this post.
    Last edited by Tobias; 28th Apr 2020 at 19:55.
    Tobias - โทเบียส
    It’s better to be 6 feet apart than to be 6 feet under.

  17. #57
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    As I mentioned in yesterday's update, the UK government has today adopted a new methodology for counting those who are believed to have died where Covid-19 is a contributory factor of the death. Up until today the DHSC daily updates included only those who had died in a hospital with the ONS separately reporting the number of Covid-19 related deaths that occured in the community (including nursing homes).

    Whilst these figures are grim reading, the important message here is that these are not new deaths and the death rate across the UK continues on a downward trajectory.

    Today's figures appear below.


    29/04/20 Total Cases In Hospital Total Discharged Total Deaths Total Tests 'PUI' Under Investigation
    Thailand
    Change
    2,947
    +7
    228
    -4
    2,665
    +13
    54
    +0
    178,083
    +0
    58,107
    +4,682


    29/04/20 Total Cases Pillar 2 Cases* Total Deaths People Tested Total Tests
    UK
    Change
    165,221
    +4,076
    23,048
    +1,541
    26,097
    +765
    632,794
    +33,455
    818,539
    +52,429


    Green = improving figure
    Red = worsening figure
    Amber = no material change to trend (<2%)
    Violet = data not updated by reporting authority


    * 'Pillar 2 Cases’ (UK)
    This figure is the cumulative number of Pillar 2 cases that have tested positive for COVID-19. Pillar 2 tests are those tests carried out on critical/key workers (and members of their households) from the NHS, social care and other key sectors. Because this data is only published late in the day, the Pillar 2 figures shown are correct as at 17:00 BST the previous day.


    An explanation of the data can be found at the bottom of this post.
    Tobias - โทเบียส
    It’s better to be 6 feet apart than to be 6 feet under.

  18. #58
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    Does it these are still only deaths where the Virus has been tested for. A more accurate figure might be the number of deaths above the 5 year average figure which only published infrequently gives a significantly higher figure than even these tragic stats. Over 40,000 and still climbing. If the hospitals are at capacity
    the data you are using will show a reduction regardless of the reality.

  19. #59
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    Carl, whilst you make some very valid points I think you have formulated some of your observations on the wrong premise. I'll post some of the most recent data in graph form to address some of the points you make. The graphs are taken from the Cabinet Office Briefing Rooms 'COBR'.

    To avoid making the post too long (and because I'm also working!), I'll split up the discussion points you raise across a number of posts.

    Quote Originally Posted by Carl View Post
    ... If the hospitals are at capacity the data you are using will show a reduction regardless of the reality.
    Let's start with hospital capacity. The Government say hospitals are actually operating under capacity. Over the last week the number of people in hospital with COVID-19 has reduced from 18,388 to 15,356 - a decrease of some 16%.

    In the graph below you will see a downward trend in the number of people hospitalised across the UK:


    The next graph shows the total number of all critical care beds that are being used for COVID-19 cases are at or below 37% of available beds. Also note that at no time has the need for critical care beds exceeded 60% of available capacity.


    So whilst there are many COVID-19 patients currently in hospital, the fact is there is a great deal more capacity available that will allow hospitals to accept as many patients as may need inpatient treatment. The whole purpose of the lockdown was to protect the NHS from becoming overwhelmed and being unable to treat patients who contract the virus or other illness requiring hospitalisation. Indeed PHE have said hospitals have not reached capacity at any point during the pandemic and all those who needed a hospital bed were given one.
    Tobias - โทเบียส
    It’s better to be 6 feet apart than to be 6 feet under.

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carl View Post
    Does it these are still only deaths where the Virus has been tested for. A more accurate figure might be the number of deaths above the 5 year average figure which only published infrequently gives a significantly higher figure than even these tragic stats. Over 40,000 and still climbing. If the hospitals are at capacity the data you are using will show a reduction regardless of the reality.
    Of vital importance in the Government's fight against the coronavirus is obtaining accurate data. This helps measure the effectiveness of the action the Government is taking.

    The quickest reports of confirmed COVID-19 deaths is from hospitals who have systems in place to report reportable diseases. The Government have been transparent with their reporting and have said the daily deaths figures reported only include those who have tested positive of COVID-19 and who have died in hospital.

    As from yesterday, because of a change in the way data is collected, PHE combines (and reports) the data from three different sources:


    1. Deaths occurring in hospitals, notified to NHS England by NHS trusts
    2. Deaths notified to local PHE Health Protection Teams in the course of outbreak management
    3. Laboratory reports where a person has had a laboratory confirmed COVID-19 test linked to death reports from electronic hospital records


    This means PHE can be confident that at the time of death the deceased had been diagnosed as having COVID-19.

    What is not included in the daily figures are the deaths where there has not been a confirmed diagnoses of COVID-19. Even where a test has not been undertaken, doctors do note on a death certificate that COVID-19 is (or is suspected of being) a contributing factor of a death.

    The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes weekly counts of deaths in which COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. This is issued every Tuesday, and includes cases in all settings and includes some cases where COVID-19 is suspected but no test has taken place.

    All that notwithstanding, the COVID-19 death rate is on a downward trajectory as the following graphs demonstrate. This first graph shows the daily COVID-19 hospital deaths. The orange line shows the 7-day rolling average (mean) of daily deaths:


    This next graph shows the daily COVID-19 deaths in all settings (hospital, nursing homes and community) where there has been a confirmed positive test. Again the orange line shows the 7-day rolling average (mean) of daily deaths.


    Again, you can see a downward trajectory.

    Once the coronavirus becomes more controlled and all the data is in, the Government will calculate the most likely number of deaths caused as a result of the coronavirus. That figure will include those who did not die of COVID-19 itself but who might have died of some other illness because they were unable to receive treatment (for example cancer patients unable to have operations or receive chemotherapy due to the risk of infection).

    This figure will also include those who have died with COVID-19 but were not tested. This figure is arrived at by looking at 'excess mortality'; that is the temporary increase in the mortality rate in the population measured against an average of the historical mortality rate covering the same period.
    Tobias - โทเบียส
    It’s better to be 6 feet apart than to be 6 feet under.

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